In the month since I have last written this column, a lot has happened in Israel. I was in Jerusalem for 10 days with the FZY Summer 2002 Israel Tour madrichim, helping them prepare for the summer. It was great to be home, and to see and talk with people directly, rather than over the phone. Most importantly, however, it was important for all of us to see that life in Israel is continuing, even though people are responding very differently to the reality of “The Matzav,” the Situation, as Israelis call the ongoing violence over the last almost 2 years.
As I returned to rainy and cold London, I was envious of Israelis who can appreciate the hot summer sun, spending hours at the poolside or on the beach. Many of our friend’s children have already begun summer camp, whereas our kids’ vacation only begins at the end of July in the UK.
There was a particularly difficult period in mid-June, as there were three terror incidents within two days. In response, the IDF launched Operation Determined Path on June 18. The aim of the operation is to occupy citites and towns under Palestinian autonomy (Area A), and blockade them to prevent terrorists from slipping out and entering into Israeli cities. The army has said that it will remain in these cities as long as necessary.
Once again, Israelis by and large support this military operation. In a poll taken at the end of June, 80% of Jewish Israelis supported Determined Path, although only 30% believe that it will lead to a reduction in terror over the long-term. They still recognise that the only solution to the situation is through political negotiations. In the same poll, 65% of Israelis believe in Prime Minister Sharon’s intention to return to the negotiating table once the terror has stopped.
The construction of a fence along the pre-1967 Israeli-Jordanian border (see previous update) continues, supported by 57% of Israelis, even though they do not yet know the final delineation of the fence.
On June 24, American President George W. Bush gave his long-awaited policy speech, after delaying it a few days after the wave of attacks in Israel during the previous week. Bush called for a freeze of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, an end to the occupation and the withdrawal of the IDF to its positions from September 28, 2000 (the beginning of the Intafada), and the creation of a Palestinian state. He also said that Arafat had proven that he was not a true leader for his people, and called for a new, different Palestinian leadership that could lead its people to an independent Palestinian state within 3 years. 62% of Israelis polled supported the speech, as compared to 31% who were opposed.
There has been a flurry of activity within the Palestinian Authority (PA), as Yasser Arafat continues to try to shuffle around the people in key positions. In early June, Muhammad Dahlan, head of the PA Preventive Security Service in the Gaza Strip resigned, hoping that he would become the new PA interior minister. Instead, he was offered a job as Arafat’s security advisor. In the first week of July, Arafat dismissed the head of the Preventive Security Chief of the West Bank, Jibril Rajoub, and then fired Tawfik Tirawi, the head of the Military Intelligence. There is still lots of uncertainty as to whether the dismissals will hold, since Rajoub has been dismissed before and Tirawi has yet to accept his removal.
Omar Suleiman, head of the Egyptian Intelligence Service, visited Israel and the Palestinian areas on July 7, and met with the top political leaders. Egypt, since President Hosni Mubarak’s recent visit to President Bush, has become more involved in trying to reorganise the Palestinian security services. Indeed, it seems that Arab leaders have moved from supporting Arafat as they did at the beginning of the Intifada, to protecting him. They have been very involved in pressuring the Israelis not to exile Arafat, but have by and large come out supportive of Bush’s speech. They are also encourageing Arafat to take more action to reform the PA.
The IDF General Staff believes that the stature of Arafat among the Palestinians has decreased since Bush’s speech, and therefore, there is no need to push Arafat out of the country. Instead, they claim that a new, pragmatic leadership will emerge, which will be willing to compromise with Israel.
In an interview that was published in the early July Newsweek magazine, Abas Zaki, member of the Fatah executive and long associate of Arafat, said in reference to the PA head, “Wherever Arafat goes, lawlessness, corruption, and instability follow… When you lose, you must go.”
Finally, Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres is scheduled to meet the newly appointed Palestinian Finance and Interior Ministers on July 9 to talk about easing conditions of the Palestinians during Operation Determined Path and renewing joint security arrangements.
It seems that there are a number of trends that seem to be pointing toward a way out of the continuing impasse. I hope that by the next update, I will be able to point to these developments in the context of a wider trend of Palestinian reform, and Israeli-Palestinian dialogue.