In my last column, I wrote about the overwhelming support within Israeli society for Operation Defensive Shield. In a late-April poll commissioned by the Tami Steinmetz Centre for Peace at the Tel-Aviv University, 86% of Israelis believed that the Operation had helped Israeli security. In contrast, 54% of Israelis believed that the Operation had done political harm to Israel.
The Operation is now over, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has withdrawn its forces from the Palestinian Authority controlled areas (Area A) in Judaea and Samaria/the West Bank.
As I write these words (Erev Shavuot), there is a lull in the violence, and there seems to be a flury of activity within the Labour and Likud parties suggesting how to move forward. Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Yasser Arafat addressed the Palestinian Legislative Council, indicating that he is prepared to embark on reforms within the PA. Before I touch upon these issues, I would like to review the events of the past 3 weeks.
As the IDF committed to withdrawing its forces from the West Bank, American President George W. Bush again invited PM Sharon to Washington. The Americans have intentionally not invited Chairman Yasser Arafat to the White House since the outbreak of the Intifada in September 2000.
Sharon ended his visit prematurely after he heard about the homicide bombing in Rishon Le Zion while sitting with President Bush. Fifteen people were killed and over 40 were injured in this latest attack. Upon his return to Israel, Sharon considered sending IDF troops into the Gaza Strip in response to the attack, perpetrated by Hamas in Gaza.
There was much debate within the military, intelligence, and political communities. Both the IDF intelligence and the General Security Service (GSS) were opposed to the operation, as was Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and Defense Minister Benyamin Ben Eliezer. After thousands of reservists were called up, the IDF 'delayed' military operations in the Gaza Strip.
Why was entering the Gaza Strip more controversial than the West Bank? There are 1.2 million Palestinians in the tiny (360 sq km) Strip, including a number of very large refugee camps. Entering these camps would be very difficult militarily. The Islamic movements (Hamas and Islamic Jihad) are very strongly supported by the population.
The opinions are still out as to why the operation was not implemented -- did Prime Minister Sharon want to upset the favourable diplomatic climate that had been established after his trip to Washington? Was military intelligence unconvinced that they could replicate the military success of the West Bank in Gaza?
Last week, the deadlock surrounding the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem ended, as Israel let out the remaining terrorists hiding inside the church and sent them into exile in Gaza and Cyprus.
After the IDF withdrawal from Ramallah, Arafat embarked on a visit to some of the cities in the West Bank. Flying in a Jordanian Air Force helicopter, he did not visit the Jenin Refugee Camp, touching upon raw nerves among the Palestinian population, who were very upset that he did not visit them.
Arafat is coming under increasing pressure within the Palestinian community as well as from Arab states friendly to the United States such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. They are trying to get him to crack down harder on the terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians, and the Palestinian people are seeking reforms within the PA.
During Operation Defensive Shield, the IDF captured Marwan Barghouti, the leader of the Tanzim, a branch of the Fatah wing of the PLO. He also served as the head of Secretary General of the Fatah, and many saw him as a potential future rival to Arafat for the leadership of the Fatah branch.
There are also some rumblings between Jibril Rajoub and Muhammed Dahlan, the heads of the Palestinian Preventive Security forces in the West Bank and Gaza. Both are potentially vying for control of the security forces if there is indeed going to be a reform within the PA.
The calls for reform within the PA include a desire to reform the cabinet, add a new position of Prime Minister to assume some of the role of President Arafat, uproot corruption, reform the justice system, institute a separation of powers, and remove certain Arafat loyalists from positions of power.
In his speech to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) on May 14, Arafat spoke about instituting reform. Two days later, the PLC voted to hold elections for the Presidency of the Palestinian Authority by March 2003. Arafat was previously elected to serve until May 1999. The PLC has also called for general and local elections within one year, and for Arafat to appoint a new cabinet within 45 days.
There have also been lots of internal debates within the Labour and Likud parties, the two biggest constituents in the massive National Unity Government. This week, both parties held Central Committee meetings. There was a hot debate within the Likud, as former PM Benjamin Netanyahu successfully led the passing of a resolution that called for no creation of a Palestinian State west of the Jordan River (ie. the West Bank), in opposition to PM Sharon, who asked to delay that vote. The dust is still clearing in this leadership battle, but a Dahaf poll after the Committee meeting found that 64% of Israelis and 43% of Likud supporters back Sharon’s position of establishing a Palestinian state. The same poll found that 54% of Likud supporters wanted Sharon to be the Likud leader, as compared to 35% who favoured Netanyahu.
In his address to the Knesset before Shavuot, Sharon said that he told the American leadership that he was willing to enter peace negotiations with the Palestinians under the following conditions:
1. The complete cessation of terror, violence and incitement.
2. The Palestinian Authority must undergo basic structural reforms in all areas - security, economic, legal and social - while maintaining complete transparency and organizational responsibility.
Questions of future direction were also presented in the Labour Party where it seems like everybody is presenting their own peace plan. Party leader Ben Eliezer, supported by his former rival for party leadership and Speaker of the Knesset Avrum Burg, presented his plan. He called for a unification of the Palestinian security services, a war on terror, security ‘separation’ from the Palestinians, and a final status agreement with the Palestinians. He envisions the establishment of a Palestinian state on most of the West Bank and Gaza, with Israel annexing parts of the West Bank near the Green Line (pre-1967 border).
At the same Committee meeting, Haim Ramon, one of the leaders of the Labour Party, presented an alternative suggestion of unilateral withdrawal and separation from the Territories and Palestinians.
On Saturday, May 11, there was a massive protest of between 60-150,000 people in Rabin Square in Tel Aviv calling for an Israeli withdrawal from the territories. This was the biggest such rally since the outbreak of the Intifada, and shows that the left peace camp has not fully died in the past year-and-a-half, as many had claimed.
It seems that there is some clear movement toward diplomatic solutions within the two major Israeli political parties, and toward political reform within the Palestinian Authority. Like the Israeli and American government, I hope and pray that Arafat will come down harder against terror and will initiate necessary reforms within the PA. I also pray that the fury of internal political debate within Israel will lead to a clearer future vision.
I urge all of you to follow in our tradition of learning during Shavuot and catch-up on the recent developments in Israel. Hag Sameach!